Signs That Roxanne Conlin Is Going To Run Over You...

If you're a supporter of Tom Fiegen, Bob Krause, or Sal Mohamed, there were some pretty good signs that your guy might get beaten by the woman in the race...signs that came from last night's Jefferson-Jackson fundraiser in Des Moines:

• Roxanne Conlin wins the media battle: Only Conlin's people sought out media coverage at the "J-J" dinner, which was a perfect opportunity for the other three to get a line or two in the story about the fundraiser. Conlin's people emailed prior to the dinner to let people know about the reception. Noone else bothered to send anything. And, in Krause's case, the press release they sent was misleading at best...and late (it was sent Sunday morning-should have been out Saturday night). It spoke of Krause's remarks at the J-J dinner. He didn't speak at the dinner. He spoke at a reception afterwards hosted by the Iowa Democratic Party. And the Krause release speaks of "extended remarks after"...the only place where you get the luxury of "extended remarks"...i.e. the chance to add words you didn't actually speak on stage...is in the Congressional Record.
• Bruce Braley anointed her...sort of. When he spoke as the lead-off at the J-J, Braley told the crowd "we have a great Senate candidate". Not candidates, but singular. Sounds like he's picked someone. And being a trial lawyer, can you guess who his choice is?
• Score two points for Conlin in organization. She has the beginnings of a real campaign staff. I saw many of the people in the support staff for Conlin Saturday that I've seen in presidential campaigns. And there were volunteers beyond the family members. It looks like waiting to announce did her some good. Second point-she saw fit to have her own reception to meet and greet the Democratic stalwarts, court new supporters and show the media wonks that she can pack 'em in all by herself. If the other Senate candidates had a similar venue they sure missed the mark in getting it publicized.
• The Polk County Democratic Machine appears ready to move for Conlin. She's from Des Moines and no other candidate is. She has Jerry Crawford in her corner and he's at the throttle of the Machine. The Machine raises money, gets votes and does all the leg work. All she has to do is organize the rest of the state (a big enough task by itself).
• The issues support her. At a time when every Republican running for governor is bashing gay marriage Conlin is a shoo-in to get support from gay and lesbian groups and their supporters. I saw several of the usual gay political activists working for Conlin Saturday night.

Am I endorsing her? No. But Krause, Fiegen, and Mohamed should all take a look at what they're doing and step it up now. It's a real race, and you have to be in it all the way if you want to defeat Roxanne Conlin in the primary. Based on what I'm seeing, it's likely to be a two-person race by Christmas.

Biden-isms At The Dem Dinner

Joe Biden's famous for his malapropisms. Here's tonight's:

"I'd say the Obama presidency was born in Iowa but I don't want to give anything to the 'birthers'"

"If I had to be in a foxhole and I could pick one guy, it would be Kevin McCarthy!" (Does that mean as a target?

After this, they got the teleprompter working and Biden hit the canned speech.

more...

Culver Speaks...and Speaks...and Speaks...

Iowa Gov. Chet Culver's no Bruce Braley.

Braley had the crowd cheering, but Culver had a long, self-promotional speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner tonight.

Saying "I will never back down!" Culver spoke for nearly 20 minutes, bragging about his accomplishments in office. The crowd was growing restless up until the last, when he finally began urging the crowd to "stand up" for Democratic issues. They stood up, but weren't cheering like they were during Braley's speech.

Talking about the Governor's race, he said it was one "we intend to win."

It became obvious the party feels itself very vulnerable in the governor's race. Not only did Culver get a lion's share of the time on the stage to this point, but US Senator Tom Harkin spoke by video from Washington, DC, again using a large part of the time to brag about Culver's accomplishments in office.

Braley Anoints Conlin for Senate??

Congressman Bruce Braley used his speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner to rally the troops.

He told those in attendance not to have sad faces, saying they should be excited about recent events...and the candidates the party has. In perhaps a Freudian slip, Braley said the attendees should be proud of "our Senate candidate". There are three other people running for the Democratic US Senate nomination, Tom Fiegen, Bob Krause, and Sal Mohamed.

So are the Democratic party leaders anointing her?

Conlin: "Send Grassley Back To The Farm"

About 500 people packed into one of the smaller banquet halls below the main event to meet and hear from Roxanne Conlin at her first "big event" since announcing her candidacy.

Jerry Crawford, Des Moines attorney and Democratic power-broker, began by reminding the crowd how long it's been since Conlin last ran for Governor in a failed attempt to defeat Terry Branstad. Crawford said that Iowans "were trying to figure out this thing called a fax machine." It was 1982.

Conlin is running as a Democratic candidate but claiming she'll be an "independent." So much so that she says that she will not accept "one dime" of political action committee money, pointing to the PAC funds that have supported Grassley in the past. What she did NOT say is that she won't take individual contributions from out of state trial lawyers, and her position as a past president of the National Trial Lawyers Association is sure to bring those kinds of donations to her campaign coffers.

She closed her pre-dinner rally with what's likely to be her war cry: "Let's send Charles Grassley back to the farm!"

More to come...

JJ Dinner Is Almost Underway-Roxanne's Big Night

Sorry, Vice President Biden, but this year's Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner won't have the spotlight on you. The Iowa Democratic party's annual fundraiser will have all the attention turned on its newest US Senate candidate, Roxanne Conlin.

However, inside the Iowa Hall of Pride, you'd never know. Against the wall of the Hall (sounds like Cat in the Hat, doesn't it?) are the banners of Leonard Boswell, Chet Culver, Mike Mauro...but not any of the US Senate candidates.

I did see volunteers working hard to tape posters on the wall outside the room where she's having a private meeting prior to the big event. And her team got plenty of yard signs stuck into the ground outside the front of Vets Auditorium.

But it will be the first "big" event where Conlin will appear since she announced her nomination in the Des Moines Register and You Tube. And the party is sponsoring an event after the speeches are done featuring all of the US Senate candidates (an attempt to soothe the wounds caused when Mike Kiernan all but endorsed Conlin?).

More to come....

How Chet Culver Could Still Win…maybe

We’ve all heard the giggling that’s coming from GOP campaign operatives about the current state of Gov. Chet Culver.  Culver’s approval rating has tanked and doesn’t appear to be getting better.  And it’s happening for several reasons:

• He spent a lot of time rushing to the scene of the floods and yet many of those communities (especially Cedar Rapids) have yet to see the massive rebuilding that was promised.  Instead, he created a commission to oversee the redevelopment and it was criticized for spending on lavish offices but not on flood victims. 
• He got Democrats in the legislature to approve an “I-Jobs” program that was supposed to combine with the Obama stimulus package and protect the state from steep unemployment losses.  Unemployment is still high in the state and it’s becoming clear that the Obama train he hitched to didn’t create any jobs, leaving unemployed Iowans to holler, “Where’s my stimulus?”
• He approved changes in the controversial film tax credit program that appear to have opened the door to fraud and abuse.  Worst of all, it appears that the Iowa Department of Economic Development was really successful in attracting filmmakers, but not so much in making sure they were legit. 
• The state’s budget crisis is squarely his.  He had a Democratic legislature and did little to reign in state spending, even when economists were predicting dire consequences for Iowa.  He’s seen as the governor who “waited” instead of acted.  Because of that, state employees had to cave in and give him concessions to avoid massive layoffs.  And any problems with state government now will rest on his shoulders, as they are likely to be blamed on “Gov. Culver’s ten percent across the board budget cut.”
• He’s now seen as Iowa’s Nero, thanks to the ineptitude of his staff.  Right after announcing concessions by unions representing state employees, his new PR team emailed a press release talking about Culver’s victory in completing a decathlon in Florida that he’s been training for the last few weeks. (That’s the kind of press release you DON’T put out in times of crisis-saying your boss was away!  Great during a campaign, lousy during governance.) It’s great that he lost 25 pounds but it raises doubts that the governor was actively involved in negotiations with the state labor unions.  

So ANY Republican’s a shoo-in right?  Nope. 

There are two “real” candidates for governor right now, as the support groups have pretty much picked Terry Branstad and Bob VanderPlaats as the contenders for the GOP nomination.  Christopher Rants is great media copy but largely unknown by voters, as are the others in the race.

So let’s see how either of the two, which the Des Moines Register’s “Iowa Poll” say both beat Culver in a head-to-head matchup, could lose:

Terry Branstad, former Governor and mainstream Republican group pick:

• Branstad right now is acting like the Fred Thompson of the Iowa GOP.  He was the subject of a “draft Terry” movement and acts like he was dragged into the race, not like the Terry Branstad who used to run into a room of people and energetically shake their hands and engage them.  At the Leadership Dinner earlier this month, he appeared a bit aloof and protected by his staff.  He did not look like he was “hungry” for the job.  Iowans will pick up on this and, if he’s the GOP nominee, they could assimilate his lack of enthusiasm and just stay away from the polls.  Outside of the Iowa GOP leadership dinner, he’s not appearing at most of the events the other GOP candidates are attending, again leaving the Fred Thompson-like impression that he’s “too good” to attend them.  Branstad’s key to victory before was shaking hands and one-on-one campaigning.  Now it seems like he’s standing behind the curtain waiting til he’s announced as the victor.
• McCain-ism/Dole-ism.  Branstad looks and acts old.  The Terry Branstad of the past took great care in his appearance to appear young and full of energy.  Now, he looks like a man ready to retire.   Voters recently haven’t reacted well to that.  Yes, it’s really superficial…but compare the Branstad hairstyle of the 90’s with today and tell me which Branstad YOU would vote for?
• Branstad is really rusty.  It was EXTREMELY apparent at the GOP Leadership Dinner in Des Moines that Branstad hasn’t given many speeches and really didn’t prep all that much for that one.  If he continues to give lackluster appearances he’ll get lackluster votes.  He needs to remember to practice, practice, practice!  When he was governor, he had his answers down pat for just about every issue.  THAT Terry wasn’t there in his initial appearances. 
• He lacks a solid message and a plan other than “I’m back!” The recent dust-up with religious conservatives is proof of that.  Branstad needs to hone his message to tell conservatives why they need him back, what he brings to the table and why noone else will work.  If he doesn’t do that, voters will yawn and stay away from the polls.
• Branstad’s under attack from religious conservatives.  They’ve anointed Bob VanderPlaats, who’s courted them openly and catered to their every whim.  And they have a media outlet with a radio talk show host wedded to VanderPlaats and, more importantly, wedded to daily telling his audience why they SHOULDN’T vote for Branstad.  This group doesn’t care about the ultimate battle with Chet Culver, they just want THEIR candidate to win the GOP primary no matter what.  It’s a formidable obstacle, and so far Branstad’s bungled any attempt to overcome it.  A meeting with some religious conservatives left them with the same impressions about him as I outlined above…and no more reassured about him as the candidate. 
• Joy Corning didn’t help him.  His former Lt. Governor has angered religious conservatives because she was pro-choice.  They already said that having her on his ticket showed Branstad was a moderate and not a true conservative.  And if that wasn’t bad enough, last week Corning lent her name and voice to robo-calls supporting gay marriage.  “AHA!” was the cry from the religious conservatives, “This shows Branstad’s REALLY not in the mainstream".”  (Meaning not in their version of the mainstream) 

That’s a lot to overcome in order to win in 2010.  Let’s look at VanderPlaats and the reasons he could lose to Culver--

Bob VanderPlaats, former coach, non-profit CEO, unsuccessful gubernatorial, Lt. Gov candidate:

• He is the anointed candidate of the religious right.  It might get you to the table and maybe even get you the GOP nomination, but it will also get you no support from the moderates in the GOP on election day and lackluster support from the independent voters that really decide things.  If he’s seen as one of those “mean Republicans” that wants to put abortion doctors in jail and deny civil rights to gay people, independents-who tend to be moderate on social issues-will either vote for Culver or just stay away.
• He doesn’t really understand the job of governor.  In a first debate with Culver, VanderPlaats could be torn apart for his naive statement that his first action as Governor would be to sign an executive order nullifying the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling that permitted gay marriage in the state.  Culver will have jurists and the attorney general to point to and can hold up a copy of Iowa’s constitution and remind VanderPlaats that an executive order wouldn’t be worth the paper it was written on, since county recorders and clerks of court are not bound by them.  (They don’t work for the governor-and that’s all he can order around)  It will show VanderPlaats as having pandered to the “mean religious right Republicans” and cost him independent votes. 
• VanderPlaats hasn’t done anything.  While he has been a candidate for office for awhile, he doesn’t have anything he’s done that he can hang his hat on right now.  Being a coach might get you votes from your past teams but not give you an election.  He has no experience in running a real business-he’s headed non-profits and his own consultancy firm since then.  He’s therefore vulnerable to the criticism that he is oblivious to Iowa’s real-live challenges and won’t understand what Iowa businesses need to grow and bring more jobs to the state. 
• So far, VanderPlaats politically is a loser.  He was part of the group that got Mike Huckabee a win in the Iowa caucuses, but that was not an election.  In the statewide elections he’s been in so far he’s lost every one.  Iowa voters don’t usually resurrect losers.  And if you’re a voter who’s lost a job/money/a business due to Iowa’s downturned economy, do you want someone who’s lost or would you give another chance to the guy who at least lately “did some things right.” 
• VanderPlaats is acting like he’s the anointed one.  I watched as VanderPlaats entered the Iowa Tea Party convention earlier this month, looking like the man who owned the place.  He may think that he’s got it all now, but Iowans have a history of taking down the ones that are “supposed” to win.  Ask Jim Ross Lightfoot about that.  What happens to those who think they have won is they don’t think they have to work for votes anymore…and VanderPlaats is looking like the guy who thinks the Iowa Family Policy Council and its sub-groups will do all the work for him.  Sorry, Bob, but AFSCME’s vote-getting runs circles around them.  So unless you can deliver personally, you could lose.  Might be a squeaker, but you could lose.
• One issue VanderPlaats.  So far, the only issue that seems to be coming from VanderPlaats is his opposition to gay marriage and that he’ll get a constitutional amendment to the voters banning gay marriage.  Iowa’s got economic troubles.  Where’s the beef there, Bob?  (And these “what-ifs” are about the general election, but what’s stopping gay rights activists from mounting a campaign to get Dems to switch parties in the primary and vote for Branstad? )  Ask one-issue candidates how well they’ve fared (does the name Alan Keyes ring a bell?).  And having Steve Deace, WHO Radio talkshow host in your corner might help shore up religious conservatives, but he’ll polarize the general election race and could bring moderates to Culver’s side. 

To be sure, it won’t be a cakewalk for Culver…but for these reasons and more 2010 won’t be a cakewalk for either of these two men, either.  It’s up to them how it turns out.